Antarctic Sea Ice Index (part 5)

I continue to explore the relationship between sea ice extent, land surface temperature, sea surface temperature, lower troposphere anomalies & atmospheric CO2

In part 4 of this series we unearthed a strange situation in which sea surface temperatures derived by the big three – Hadley Centre/NOAA/ICOADS – appeared to have a negative relationship with atmospheric CO2 whereas the UAH NSST v6.0 crew told a different story of indifference down at the South Pole. I ended that article by stating that I better trust the NSST satellite data if I am to produce a sensible sea ice model, but it was too late… my curiosity had piqued!

This morning, as I sit surrounded by 16.5°C of sweltering August heat, a damp garden and the usual sheep-storm of journalistic drivel, I fancy taking another look at sea surface temperature as declared by the big three and comparing this series with the NSST values. Those coming late to the party had better start with this article first.

Diving straight in with a Pearson bivariate correlation between the merged series I am calling Sea Surface Temperature (Big3) and South Pole Lower Troposphere Ocean for the period 1979 – 2022 we find a measly r = 0.161 (p=0.297); that is to say there ain’t any correlation when there should be! This is rather unexpected so I got out my box of crayons: