A Fresh And Fruity Look At Spring 2024 (part 3)
The Met Office are trying to convince us that it was well warm this spring despite folk resorting to hot water bottles and bobble hats, so I took a look at HadCET daytime temperatures 1878-2024
In the previous article in this series we took a look at the mean temperature for Central England from the days of Richard Cromwell to Rishi Sunak and ran screaming from the kitchen to throw soup on artworks and superglue bits of ourselves to things. I note that no biological male identifying as he/him has super-glued his manservant to a revolving door as yet but we can but hope. The reason for this autolytic1 hysteria is that we discovered apocalyptic runaway spring warming for central England from 1975 onward as a result of incredibly selfish, totally dangerous and utterly shameful fossil fuel use.
But did we really discover runaway warming?
Yer Means, Innit?
I must remind readers we are once again basing our conclusions on mean temperatures, being an equal mixture of daytime maxima and nighttime minima. The mean (a.k.a. average) of anything actually does not physically exist for it is a mathematical construct. Penguins do not lay average eggs, they lay real eggs that we may define as being average if we dial-in our metaphysical construct. And so it is with temperature.
Right now weather stations dotted around central England are logging the instantaneous temperature at their location. At the end of the day they will have recorded the highest and lowest temperature attained and these two figures will be converted into the arithmetical average with equal weighting. Thus, the day could remain mostly cool until 6pm when the sun comes out blazing and the wind drops but the arithmetical average isn’t going to account for this mostly cool business.
A Thrashing
So how about we look at those extreme day and nighttime temperatures and see what story they have to tell about spring 2024? A succulent idea, methinks, but there’s one thing we need to thrash out first and that is how CO2 basically behaves as a greenhouse gas.
The thing about CO2 is that the molecules don’t come with an off switch, neither do they sulk or take a vacation. That resonant dance that they do when excited by infrared is being danced 24/7/365 whenever infrared is available. It follows directly from GHGT that daytime land surface temperatures should be steadily rising over time with all that additional CO2, and so will nighttime temperatures if there is something around to store the energy gained during the day.
So let’s have a look at what central England has been doing since the year 1878 when daily records became available for temperature maxima (daytime) and minima (nighttime).
Quadruple Bakes
If we have a sequence of 31 daily minimum (nighttime) temperatures recorded for May 2024 we can do one of two things when it comes to aggregating these:
We can take the lowest temperature recorded among all 31 observations (nighttime minimum);
We can take the average of all 31 observations (mean nighttime temp).
When it comes to the 31 daily maxima (daytime) recorded for May 2024 we can do the same two things, but this time extracting the highest daytime temperature recorded for our absolute daytime maximum. Hence, there are four possible slides to consider, these representing two mean series and two extreme series. I don’t know about you but I fancy crunching all four options for both May alone and for all of spring (MAM), but only after a decent lunch that doesn’t make me sleepy and press the wrong buttons!
May Daytime Temperatures
Herewith the mean daytime and absolute maximum daytime series for central England respectively for the months of May occurring between 1878 and 2024:
Mean Daytime
We observe a gradual warming trend that was estimated at 0.82°C per century (p=0.003) using linear regression, suggesting the month of May is gradually getting warmer in terms of the mean daytime temperature.
Whilst May 2024 puts in a good showing it’s worth noting that it crossed the finishing line in 8th place with 18.25°C. When it comes to medals gold goes to 1992 with 19.05°C, silver goes to 2018 with 18.82°C and bronze goes to 1919 with 18.59°C. Thus, when we come to consider mean daytime temperatures we can’t really make a case for 2024 offering the warmest May on record unless we are corrupt souls.
Maximum Daytime
This time round we observe a gradual warming trend that was estimated at 0.99°C per century (p=0.029) using linear regression, suggesting the month of May is also gradually getting warmer in terms of the absolute maximum daytime temperature recorded.
May 2024 most certainly does not put in a good showing and could easily get booed as it crosses the finishing line in 34th place with 24.30°C. When it comes to medals gold goes to 1944 with 28.90°C, silver goes to 1947 with 28.60°C and bronze goes to 1953 with 27.60°C. Thus, when we come to consider absolute maximum daytime temperatures then May 2024 comes absolutely nowhere. These are the temperatures that we feel as human folk - it is impossible to feel an average since it is a metaphysical construct!
Here Come The Nods
Those who have lived long and healthy lives are going to be nodding as you read out the top three hottest Mays of all time (well, not of all time TBH, just since 1878 really, but that’s the sort of gibberish that comes with Met Office declarations these days). I’m not old enough to vouch for these long gone hot Mays but I can vouch for May 1978, which came 7th with 26.30°C. I was drinking cold beers back then and sprawling on the campus lawns instead of swatting-up in the library. Some unfortunate (and rather slow) first years got thrown into the moat – that’s how warm it was.
A Turn Up
Well, then, that’s a turn up for the books! In terms of the temperatures that arguably matter most when it comes to ‘climate change’ - namely those measured during the warm bit of the day - then May 2024 is nowhere near to being hailed as some kind of record-breaking month in anyway shape or form.
So let us now consider the whole of spring whilst the iron is… er… hot!
Spring Daytime Temperatures
Herewith the mean daytime and absolute maximum daytime series for central England respectively for springs (MAM) occurring between 1878 and 2024:
Mean Daytime
We observe a gradual warming trend that was estimated at 1.11°C per century (p<0.001) using linear regression, suggesting English springs are gradually getting warmer in terms of the mean daytime temperature.
Whilst spring 2024 puts in a jolly good showing it’s worth noting that it crossed the finishing line in 11th place with 14.39°C. When it comes to medals gold goes to 1893 with 15.74°C, silver goes to 2020 with 15.10°C and bronze goes to 2011 with 14.91°C. Thus, when we again come to consider daytime temperatures, we can’t make a case for 2024 offering the warmest spring on record; that just ain’t so, folks.
I don’t know what happened in 1893 but it was a blast!
Micro Ice Age
As I get the kettle going for my afternoon brew I imagine the period 1960 – 1985 as being an unacknowledged micro ice age. Cover those points up and a distinct progression is seen, albeit a very steady progression. Put those points back and ignore anything prior to 1960 and you get a very aggressive warming trend indeed; so aggressive, in fact, that I wouldn’t put it past experts to be tempted to use this choice selection as a rather naughty lever. After all, such trends are good for business these days.
Maximum Daytime
That slight warming trend was actually estimated at 1.00°C per century (p=0.018) using linear regression, which surprised me a tad. Again this suggests English springs are gradually getting warmer in terms of the absolute maximum daytime temperature recorded.
Spring 2024 puts in a terrible showing and was indeed booed as it crossed the finish line in 34th place with 24.30°C. When it comes to medals gold once again went to 1944 with 28.90°C, silver again going to 1947 with 28.60°C and bronze going to 1953 with 27.60°C2.
The deduction that the HadCET daily data asks us to make is that spring 2024, like May 2024, comes absolutely nowhere near to breaking a historic record in terms of those critical daytime temperatures that are supposed to rocket as a result of fossil fuel-driven climate change.
I am hoping readers are beginning to understand why the Met Office always resorts to using mean temperatures rather than maximum temperatures, for the latter are in danger of letting the cat out of the bag.
Next time round we shall have a rummage through the nighttime data and we are going to discover that unusually warm nights are what is driving the record breaking. Until then…
Kettle On!
In biology autolysis is more commonly known as self-digestion.
When it comes to spring May is king.