A Fresh And Fruity Look At Spring 2024 (part 2)

The Met Office are trying to convince us that it was well warm this spring despite folk resorting to hot water bottles and bobble hats, so I took a look at HadCET mean temperatures 1659-2024

In my freebie article entitled A Fresh And Fruity Look At Spring 2024 I used NOAA’s Global Historical Climatological Network Daily (GHCNd) database to get a handle on land surface temperatures across the UK for the month of May and for the entirety of spring (MAM) of this year but found it had more holes than my kitchen colander. I then flipped to frying a dollop of data from the Met Office that turned out to be hole-free, though a trifle on the small side, offering a sample of just 34 useable weather stations. This morning I’m going to pull down data from the longest running temperature record in the world – the Central England Temperature Record (HadCET) – that got going way back in 1659. You read that correctly - 1659 - when Richard Cromwell, third son of Oliver Cromwell and Lord Protector of all England, was throwing his weight around.

Before I bake the first slide I’d like to just say a few more words about the since records began ear-worm that the Met Office grind out each time they chase what would, in other scientific fields, be classified as extremes, outliers and rogue values that are to be regarded with suspicion. Not so for temperature data, it would seem!

Not That Many, Then

In this particular bout of frothing at the mouth the Met Office are talking about records beginning in 1884. That’s fine but the first question that members of the public should throw at them is: how many stations were operative in 1884? Ideally this should be followed by: how many of those stations that were operative in 1884 were still operative in 2024? I then recommend: is this contiguous sample of stations the exact sample that the Met Office used for their analysis?

Optional questions might include: if the sample of stations was permitted to vary over time has this introduced bias? And: what would the results look like if the sample was restricted to those few stations that were continuously operative from 1884 to 2024?

You might also try the mildly tetchy: why doesn’t the Met Office apply the same sort of statistical rigour in their analyses that are to be found in other scientific fields?

I think you get the picture.

So, exactly how many stations were operative in 1884 that are still operative today? Well, I’m not in a position to give the definitive answer but according to the GHCNd database only 6 stations were continuously operative during this period, these being Oxford (1815), Armagh (1844), Stornoway (1873), Buxton (1875), Durham (1880) and Sheffield (1883). Then there’s the Central England Temperature record whose station membership has varied slightly since 1659.

Not that many, then, unless the Met Office are sitting on stations they keep in a cupboard somewhere that is well away from the gaze of the public.

And now for a real treat - a slide of mean temperatures for Central England for the months of May since 1659...

Mean for May Since Richard Cromwell

What a sight for sore eyes!

In terms of medals gold goes to 1833 with 15.10°C, silver goes to 2024 with 14.10°C and bronze goes to 1848 with 13.90°C. The modern era doesn’t then get a look in until 15th place when 2008 managed 13.40°C. In terms of anomalies derived using the Met Office baseline of 1991-2020 then that 14.10°C for May 2024 sits +2.19°C above the normal mean of 11.91°C, which would yield a deep pink on the screenshot that got me growling:

Thus we discover that the Central England Temperature Record agrees with this graphic, for central England is indeed coloured a deep pink representing an anomaly range of +1.5 - +2.5°C. Perhaps we ought to break out the buns and put away the bobble hats and Norwegian socks that we thought we had worn but obviously couldn’t have, May 2024 being the second warmest May on record since 1659.

It doesn’t add up does it?

Mean for Spring Since Richard Cromwell

Aiieeeeee!!!!! Global warming is out of control, we’re all gonner get baked like Pommes Dauphinoise with a little added fresh dill and plenty of ground black pepper! Quick… throw some soup at something precious and loved by many!

So yes, there sure looks to be spring warming according to the Central England Temperature Record, with spring 2024 taking the gold with 10.60°C, spring 2017 taking the silver with 10.37°C and spring 2011 taking the bronze with 10.30°C. In terms of anomalies that there 10.60°C for this spring sits 1.38°C above the 1991-2020 baseline at 9.22°C, which fetches-up at that pale pink again and puts a frown on my forehead. But what is causing this warming?

CO2 Gets Tired

If it’s fossil fuel consumption and only fossil fuel consumption then why did English springs cool markedly from 1940 to 1990? Did CO2 tire of its job back then or is something else going on?

And how much of this recent warming is due to the urban heat island effect? How much could be due to things both man-made and natural that we haven’t even considered yet? Ought we to consider these things or is it best to carry on throwing soup?

Ought we to follow the science™ as requested by those who govern us or ought we go do a heck of a lot more science (and honest science at that) just to be sure we’ve got this right? Had we better look at what the Atlantic ocean has been doing? Could Hunga Tonga have pushed figures for 2024?

But here’s the thing…

The numerical experience of the Central England Temperature Record doesn’t add up to my physical experience of spring 2024 here in the West Country where the weather is usually mild. Neither does it add up to the physical experiences of friends, family and colleagues up and down the land who’ve gone and forked out extra on central heating bills.

How come the personal experience of many isn’t reflected in Met Office data records? Is there something nasty to be seen in the woodshed?

Kettle On!