Encouraged by readers I set about analysing HadUKP monthly rainfall records for all eight regions of the UK mainland. Today I look at variance within the regional rainfall record
Are your LOESS curves correlated at all? First thing I noticed was that all showed a rise in the final 15-odd years. Would it mean anything if they were? (Thinking about your comments on methodology and paper cups)
Not only are the LOESS curves correlated but the raw data series also. In fact, the raw data yields stronger correlation coefficients than anything smoothed, with the highest value of r = 0.758 (p<0.001) being attained by the South West and South East England series. This makes total sense since dirty great weather fronts can swamp our tiny island, generally moving West to East. The weakest correlation is r = 0.335 (p<0.001) between Central England and the North West, but there’s still a positive correlation. This is exactly what I’d expect.
What we are riding pretty much everywhere is a recent bump from 2005 onward that I’m guessing will flatten out over the next decade or so. There’s no evidence of underlying long-term trends but what I have gone and forgotten is to include the Wald-Wolfowitz runs test results that show all 8 series to be a random walk. I’ll update the article with these when I can grab a moment (currently cooking a roast chicken dinner!).
not surprised by the NW low correlation score - that's where I live. Somewhere I have a satellite pic of the whole of the UK covered in snow.... apart from one little area in the NW of England.
Are your LOESS curves correlated at all? First thing I noticed was that all showed a rise in the final 15-odd years. Would it mean anything if they were? (Thinking about your comments on methodology and paper cups)
Not only are the LOESS curves correlated but the raw data series also. In fact, the raw data yields stronger correlation coefficients than anything smoothed, with the highest value of r = 0.758 (p<0.001) being attained by the South West and South East England series. This makes total sense since dirty great weather fronts can swamp our tiny island, generally moving West to East. The weakest correlation is r = 0.335 (p<0.001) between Central England and the North West, but there’s still a positive correlation. This is exactly what I’d expect.
What we are riding pretty much everywhere is a recent bump from 2005 onward that I’m guessing will flatten out over the next decade or so. There’s no evidence of underlying long-term trends but what I have gone and forgotten is to include the Wald-Wolfowitz runs test results that show all 8 series to be a random walk. I’ll update the article with these when I can grab a moment (currently cooking a roast chicken dinner!).
not surprised by the NW low correlation score - that's where I live. Somewhere I have a satellite pic of the whole of the UK covered in snow.... apart from one little area in the NW of England.
There you go! Always nice to put flesh on the bones.