Central England Temperature (part 5)
A sideways look at the longest instrumental record of temperature in the world
In part 4 of this series I came out batting for alarmism by producing a scatterplot of central England mean annual temperature (HADCET) against atmospheric CO2 concentration for the period 1659 - 2021, and by assuming warming was due to human emissions and only human emissions.
Three mathematical models were considered (linear, nonlinear and log-linear) and fitted to the data cloud using linear regression. Three equations were presented for the numerically-minded, with the results also being plotted out graphically.
We discovered that the three model forms produced very similar fits to the data for the range of CO2 concentrations considered (275 - 420ppm), and I promised to crayon plots out to 500ppm, 1,000ppm and even 4,000ppm in order that we may ascertain just how well roasted we are all going to be in the future if we took each model form and alarmist claims as the gospel truth.
We shall start out this chilly UK morning (1.5°C according to my North wall outside thermometer) by gawping at three possible warm futures for an eventual CO2 concentration of 500ppm, pausing to note that the US is currently experiencing record cold and record snow despite atmospheric CO2 being up at 417.37ppm last Thursday.