Central England Temperature (part 6)

A sideways look at the longest instrumental record of temperature in the world

In part 5 of this series I continued my support of alarmism by considering three mathematical models that linked mean annual Central England temperature observations (HADCET) for the period 1659 – 2021 to values for atmospheric CO2 concentration for the northern hemisphere. We discovered that all three models (linear, nonlinear, loglinear) gave near identical results over the range of observation (275 – 420ppm CO2) but differed markedly in their predictions for future scenarios of 1,000ppm and 4,000ppm CO2. Only one model (loglinear) got close to estimating the theoretical mean temperature of -20°C for the condition of zero CO2, this model indicating substantial saturation of the greenhouse effect such that mean temperatures would not exceed 18.5°C even at atmospheric concentrations of 4,000ppm. These findings are based on actual data and thus are empirical in nature, these essentially being at odds with bizarre claims of activists and experts alike for runaway global warming. Runaway…