I explore the relationship between sea ice extent, my newly-minted grand continental anomaly, sea surface temperature, NSST v6.0 ocean/land anomalies & atmospheric CO2
Isn’t the Mauna Loa CO2 data a steady rise year on year with intra-year wiggles? How can any yearly data correlate with that unless it’s a similar yearly rise?
Yes, it's a steady rise but correlations - both positive and negative - are still possible since all depends on what the other variables are doing. I've knocked-up a spreadsheet so you can see how this works...
This may be a silly question, but does volcanic activity get taken into account anywhere when data is recorded and would it be likely to be a significant contributing factor?
No ma'am! At least not in the source products, but some studies might take account of this. In the next article the case for geothermal warming of Antarctic waters becomes clear.
This article is in agreement with your findings: '..............Actually, the general long-term trend is for there to be an inverse correlation: as CO2 rises, ocean heat content declines'
Thanks to you, when the news reports that the sea is hotter than ever, it seems meaningless and I immediately think one bit, or all of it (it’s very big), to what depth, when, for how long, is it an average for one day, one week, one year, compared with what, who measured what where, is like compared with like, over what time span? etc. etc. even though I understand very little of your statistical workings!
Love it! This is exactly how we should all respond instead of absorbing news headlines without thought. The press are at great pains to show our scientists are always correct, which is why they use 'inexplicable' or 'unexpected' when a real world event doesn't match the theory - we can't have the experts looking like twats!
Vinos explains that the heat gets into the oceans over the equatorial regions and then moves towards the poles. This is not continuous process, but controlled by the AMO and PMO. So it too, is cyclical.
He suggests that when the Polar SSTs are low, the earth is in a warming phase, and when the SSTs are high, the earth is in a cooling phase. This explanation seems to fit your graph of Antartic SST v CO2/time.
So perhaps using CCF with PMO might yield something useful?
Fabulous - thank you! As it so happens I spent this afternoon looking at AAO, AMO, PDO and SAM and the first results will be appearing in part 5. But - and this is the exciting bit despite being a spoiler - I'm coming to the same conclusion.
Isn’t the Mauna Loa CO2 data a steady rise year on year with intra-year wiggles? How can any yearly data correlate with that unless it’s a similar yearly rise?
Yes, it's a steady rise but correlations - both positive and negative - are still possible since all depends on what the other variables are doing. I've knocked-up a spreadsheet so you can see how this works...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a_3aNNF-OQLR51AumLGD_JulmB5gNE5Sy3DPZpBM1jc/edit?usp=drive_link
This may be a silly question, but does volcanic activity get taken into account anywhere when data is recorded and would it be likely to be a significant contributing factor?
No ma'am! At least not in the source products, but some studies might take account of this. In the next article the case for geothermal warming of Antarctic waters becomes clear.
This article is in agreement with your findings: '..............Actually, the general long-term trend is for there to be an inverse correlation: as CO2 rises, ocean heat content declines'
https://notrickszone.com/2016/11/03/scientific-studies-reveal-no-correlation-between-co2-and-ocean-heat-content-variations-for-99-975-of-the-last-10000-years/
Great find! In my next article this negative relationship becomes abundantly clear.
Thanks to you, when the news reports that the sea is hotter than ever, it seems meaningless and I immediately think one bit, or all of it (it’s very big), to what depth, when, for how long, is it an average for one day, one week, one year, compared with what, who measured what where, is like compared with like, over what time span? etc. etc. even though I understand very little of your statistical workings!
Love it! This is exactly how we should all respond instead of absorbing news headlines without thought. The press are at great pains to show our scientists are always correct, which is why they use 'inexplicable' or 'unexpected' when a real world event doesn't match the theory - we can't have the experts looking like twats!
The reduction of the Antartic SST since the 1970's might be explained in this video from Vinos..
https://youtu.be/BmYHQ_QSj-Q?t=801
Vinos explains that the heat gets into the oceans over the equatorial regions and then moves towards the poles. This is not continuous process, but controlled by the AMO and PMO. So it too, is cyclical.
He suggests that when the Polar SSTs are low, the earth is in a warming phase, and when the SSTs are high, the earth is in a cooling phase. This explanation seems to fit your graph of Antartic SST v CO2/time.
So perhaps using CCF with PMO might yield something useful?
Fabulous - thank you! As it so happens I spent this afternoon looking at AAO, AMO, PDO and SAM and the first results will be appearing in part 5. But - and this is the exciting bit despite being a spoiler - I'm coming to the same conclusion.
I think you might find these biscuits goes particularly well with your roibos!
https://climategrog.wordpress.com/2013/03/01/61/
https://judithcurry.com/2023/07/18/the-2015-major-el-nino-was-predicted-years-in-advance-using-a-lunar-cycle/
Yum yum!