Climate Change & Climate Variability (part 11)

We go back over some basics regarding statistical variance within a time series using an inflatable plastic dataset

Back in Climate Change & Climate Variability (part 1) I stamped out what I believed to be a crafty idea:

‘Climate Change’ by definition implies magnification of the variance inherent in any climate-related variable over time, and this can be assessed using formal statistical methods.

I had assumed everybody was with me on this but perhaps not. Once you grasp the nettle on this the cat is out of the stable and the milk has spoiled, so what I thought I’d do today is ensure everybody is up to speed and crisping nicely by running a few simulations to explain what (statistical) variance is, what it looks like, how we go about calculating it, and why it torpedoes the notion of man-made climate change below the waterline. I shall be doing this in best bib and tucker and with good grace as a former G7 head of a statistical modelling section in the service of Her Majesty’s Government. I shall also use my (expensive) professional stats package as well as Excel.

The Beginning

I shall start at the b…