Atmospheric Residency & Oomph (part 2)
A quick look at the HADCRUT5 global mean annual temperature anomaly and human emissions over the last 170 years
In part 1 of this series I introduced the concept of climate sensitivity a.k.a. ‘oomph’, this being the amount of human carbon emissions it takes to shift the HADCRUT5 global mean anomaly by one degree. This analysis assumes that everything the alarmists claim in the name of climate science is perfectly correct and facts like saturation of greenhouse gas forcing just don’t count (here's a wonderful 41 minute lecture that explains this deep flaw in the ‘science’). No, I haven’t lost my marbles, what I am doing is playing the alarmists at their own game in order to expose their nonsense.
We discovered that climate sensitivity critically depended on estimates of something called atmospheric residency, this being the amount of time human emissions stay in the atmosphere where they can contribute to the greenhouse gas effect. The IPCC tabulate residencies from anywhere between 5 years and 200 years and favour 200 years in their modelling. Ironically, longer residencies mean less climate sensitivity and I estimated a rise of just 0.007°C in the annual global anomaly per additional Gt of human CO2 emission for a residency of 200 years. If residency is indeed up at 200 years then humans are not going to have much of an impact no matter what: a case of alarmists being hoisted by their own petard!
Given 5 to 200 years is a pretty wild range for an estimate I decided to explore use of statistical techniques to see if these could shed light, hopefully narrowing things down. Grab the coffee, toast the muffins and have a butcher’s at this lot…