Antarctic Sea Surface Temperature (part 2)

The relationship between sea surface temperature (60 – 90° South) and sea ice extent isn’t as straightforward as we may expect

Now that we have the most robust time series I can muster we ought to stop asking awkward questions about data collection take a look at the relationship with Antarctic sea ice extent. Long gone are the days when I got a straightforward answer in the field of climate science, and so I wasn’t expecting anything but puzzlement once more. I wasn’t to be disappointed – grab a slice of cake and have a cogitate on this scatterplot for annual means gathered over the period 1979 – 2022:

The Pearson bivariate correlation coefficient for this scatter fetches up at r = -0.436 (p=0.003, n=44). Yes indeed, we have evidence of an overall negative relationship as we may expect (warmer oceans mean less ice), but that green LOESS function indicates the situation isn’t that simple, with SST anomalies from 0.00 to +0.35°C revealing total lack of a relationship. So what is going?

This is what is going on…