Climate Change & Climate Variability (part 2)
Hot weather is due to CO2. Cold weather is due to CO2. Heavy rain is due to CO2. Drought is due to CO2. Today I look at the variance inherent in the Central England Temperature record
In part 1 of this series I pulled down the HadCRUT5 global mean anomaly for the period January 1850 – March 2024 to get a handle on variability of this key climate measure. We discovered that variability – as measured using the standard deviation of the mean monthly anomaly – has not been increasing over time, nor is the data series exhibiting heteroscedasticity. In sum, there’s no evidence to suggest global mean temperatures are getting wild, as alarmists these days regularly claim. Since variance lies at the heart of the very definition of climate change (as opposed to gradual warming) then, in this respect, we may conclude that climate change is not happening no matter how many celebs say otherwise.
Some may argue that climate change as a function of monthly temperature cannot be detected at the global level because of the complexity of a changing climate on a globe with hemispheric differences, and especially with highly processed data. Whilst there’s a degree of truth in this we have to realise this argument is very much along the lines of the emperor’s new clothes; that is, folk are arguing that climate change is real but that we can’t go measure it. Asymptomatic climate change is a phrase that cheekily springs to mind.
Let me put these folk and others out of their misery by repeating my analysis from part 1 but using a highly regarded temperature series from a small island renowned for its marked sensitivity to changes in the weather. Yes indeed, I am once again heading for the UK, and central England in particular. This may call for a burst of Thomson & Arne – cue flags! Break out the buns and keep the sugar dry!
Those who wish to repeat my analysis may find the source data here. One smashing feature of this dataset is that it offers daily mean temperature dating back to 1772, being some 42 years after Thomson & Arne did their thing. This means the analysis will pick up day-to-day changes in temperature that a monthly series like HadCRUT5 will compress into mush. We can also resort to analysing daily maxima and minima from 1878 onward, this giving us another handle to turn.
Grab a cuppa and I shall begin…
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